Editor’s Note
The once-unshakeable premium on natural diamonds is eroding at a startling pace. As this article details, prices for polished stones have collapsed by over 80% from their peak, fundamentally reshaping the luxury market. This plunge raises critical questions about shifting consumer values, the rise of lab-grown alternatives, and the future of a traditional symbol of enduring value.
Natural diamonds were once the “must-have” for many, but their sky-high prices also made many people hesitate. However, in the past two years, the price of natural diamonds has been continuously losing ground. According to reports, from early 2022 to the present, the price of polished diamonds has cumulatively fallen by as much as 85%.
In the retail sector, the price of 1-carat polished diamonds has cumulatively fallen by over 80% compared to the peak.
De Beers, the world’s largest natural diamond supplier, lowered the price of polished diamonds in the secondary market by 10% to 15% on December 3, US Eastern Time.
Some analysts pointed out that De Beers usually views significant price cuts as a “last resort” to cope with market changes. The company’s multiple price reductions have already shown its urgent attitude when facing market difficulties. This also indicates that, as an industry giant, De Beers has been unable to effectively support diamond prices in the face of market downturn pressure.
According to the 2023 results released by De Beers, the group’s total revenue fell by 34.84% from $6.6 billion in 2022 to $4.3 billion, while polished diamond sales fell by 40% from $6 billion in 2022 to $3.6 billion.
Regarding the reasons behind the recent sharp drop in diamond prices, industry insiders believe that:
In addition, De Beers’ CEO also mentioned that the macroeconomic situation is changing, and consumers are gradually shifting from goods consumption to service-oriented consumption. Therefore, the demand for luxury goods, such as diamonds, has sharply declined.
Other analyses claim that the sharp drop in polished diamond prices and the decline in market demand, especially the popularity and reduction in cost of lab-grown diamonds, have reduced consumer demand for natural diamonds.
Technological advancements have made the quality of lab-grown diamonds close to that of natural diamonds, but at a lower price, attracting more consumers, especially in daily jewelry consumption, seizing market share from natural diamonds.
With the continuous advancement of technology, the production technology of lab-grown diamonds is becoming increasingly mature. Currently, the main production methods for lab-grown diamonds are High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) and Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD). Both methods can successfully cultivate high-quality diamonds in the laboratory, and production efficiency is constantly improving. At the same time, the quality of lab-grown diamonds is also continuously improving. Whether it’s color, clarity, or cutting, they can compete with natural diamonds.
Currently, the consumption volume of lab-grown diamonds has already matched that of natural diamonds. The latest report from the US market research agency Tenoris points out that in October 2024, US finished jewelry retail sales increased by 9.9%, among which natural diamond jewelry saw a slight increase, growing by 4.7%; while lab-grown diamonds achieved a growth rate of 46%.
According to predictions from the German data platform Statista, in the global jewelry market in 2024, the sales of lab-grown diamonds will reach about $18 billion, accounting for over 20% of the entire jewelry market.
Public data shows that China’s single diamond rough production accounts for about 95% of the global total production, ranking first in the world, and the production of diamonds made in Henan accounts for 80% of the national total.
In the field of lab-grown diamonds, China’s production capacity accounts for about 50% of the global total lab-grown diamond production capacity, of which a significant portion belongs to “Made in Henan.”
According to data analysis from the consulting firm Bain & Company, China’s polished lab-grown diamond sales volume was 1.4 million carats in 2021, with a lab-grown diamond market penetration rate of 6.7%. It is estimated that by 2025, China’s polished lab-grown diamond sales volume will reach 4 million carats, and the lab-grown diamond penetration rate will reach 13.8%. Analysts point out that with technological advancements and increased market acceptance, the lab-grown diamond industry is ushering in a period of rapid growth.