Editor’s Note
This article examines the luxury sector’s recent contraction and the strategic shifts—from client polarization to accessible luxury—that will define its path toward projected growth by 2030.
After two years of post-Covid recovery (2021, 2022) followed by a normalization phase (2023), 2024 was characterized by a decline in luxury sector spending (-2%), with an estimated value of just under 1.5 trillion euros.
Polarization of clientele, the rise of so-called “accessible” luxury, and increased demands for personalization: while the latest Luxury Report from Bain and Altagamma provided a detailed overview of this decline in an inflationary context, its authors now confirm more favorable prospects for the coming years.
According to a recent note titled “Luxury in Transition: Securing Future Growth,” they estimate that spending on goods and experiences in the luxury industry could grow by +5 to +9% per year by 2030, reaching 2 to 2.5 trillion euros.
The personal luxury goods segment, in particular, could benefit from moderate growth this year (0 to +4%) before accelerating by +4 to +6% per year by 2030, potentially reaching up to 500 billion euros.
To support this momentum, experts rely on forecasts of sustained growth in Western countries and the Middle East, as well as a gradual recovery in China and normalization in Japan. More than 300 million new buyers—from new generations but also from new middle and upper classes—could enter the market by 2030, particularly in China and emerging markets such as India, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
In this context, the study’s authors predict a necessary return, for brands and Houses, to the fundamentals of luxury. The watchword? Excellence, both in product design and in storytelling and customer experience.
the experts specify, also mentioning the contributions of generative AI across the entire value chain.
they add, observing a shift in “technology investments related to maintaining existing operations towards catalysts of transformative change.”
