Editor’s Note
The latest Art Basel report confirms a sharp correction in the global art market, with high-end sales falling 12%. While overall transaction volume is rising and female artists are gaining ground, the data signals a clear end to the post-pandemic buying frenzy.
Art is a safe-haven asset, but only in prosperous times. That seems to be the takeaway from the latest data in the Art Basel report, which reveals a 12% global decline, particularly in the highest-priced works. The positive news? Transaction volume is up, and female artists continue to gain ground.
Let’s not mince words: the art bubble has burst. After the post-pandemic rebound in the two years following the pandemic, when collectors went wild buying everything at any price, and after a lackluster 2023, last year reiterated the downward trend. The aggravating factor is that the decline has accelerated; if the previous year’s losses were 4% – a figure that foreshadowed poor prospects but allowed for dreams of a possible return to positive numbers in the medium term – this time the contraction is 12%, something that will be difficult to reverse in the coming months.
Certainly, signs of stagnation were there: auctions barely covering their most modest estimates, withdrawal of lots that could have boosted collector morale and enthusiasm, doubts among the wealthiest sector, and a generational shift among millionaires that is steering exclusive tastes from art towards other luxury items like handbags, jewelry, or wine (something analysts have agreed to call “the great wealth transfer,” which is changing consumption habits and will continue to do so in the coming years when Generation Z receives the largest amount of inheritances of the century).
For anyone still thinking this could turn around, the Art Basel report has arrived to erase any glimmer of hope with devastating data: a significant drop in sales, a drop in eight-figure auction results, and a drop in online transactions. Conclusion? Declines in the sector that triple the poor results of 2023.
Ever since Warhol placed his *Shot Sage Blue Marilyn* in the Olympus of the most expensive works in history in 2022, million-dollar lot results have not stopped deflating. In fact, when the famous Picasso Landau went up for sale a few months after the Warhol, that exuberance had vanished, once again demonstrating that the famous 15 minutes of fame of the creator of The Factory are as ephemeral as they are capricious. Because Picasso’s *Femme à la montre* had all the ingredients to shatter the previous Picasso record, but it barely managed to cover its low estimate (it was awarded for $121 million + fees, about $139.4 million). Still, it was the only lot to exceed nine figures in 2023, when the previous year up to six works could be counted within that range.
The same ‘scarcity’ – let’s say this with all the quotation marks in the world and only in the context at hand, so as not to lose perspective of the everyday economy – was experienced in 2024, when Magritte had to come to the market’s rescue with *L’Empire des lumières*, sold for $121 million at Christie’s. This surrealist painting not only holds the title of last year’s most expensive work but is also the only lucky one to reach $100 million. A real rarity, considering that the second and third positions in the ranking are occupied by Edward Ruscha and Monet with $68.2 million and $65.5 million respectively.
Many experts believe the reasons for this significant decline must be sought in the sale of pieces from the highest segment (above $10 million), an exclusive bracket that very few can access but which is often fundamental for gauging the health of the market. Well, in 2024 this sector contracted by 39%. This includes the weak results of Monet’s *Morning on the Seine, Clear Weather* sold for £14.3 million – estimated between £12 and £18 million – or Magritte’s *L’ami intime*, awarded for £33.6 million – well below the £50 the house expected to raise – two of the star pieces of Christie’s March auction.
To tell the truth, the post-pandemic euphoria began to show the first signs of exhaustion in 2023, when some of the star lots began to go unsold. Then we witnessed a return to sanity that soon turned into slowdown, caution, distrust, recession, or whatever you want to call it. The fact is that it translated into the collapse of the two major auction houses.
Unfortunately, 2024 has only worsened those poor results, and there is no longer room for circumlocution. It is true that a negative balance was expected, but not that it would reach a double-digit figure (that -12% reduces sales to almost 2016 levels). According to the ninth report prepared by Art Basel and UBS, the revenue obtained last year from art purchases totaled $57.5 billion, well below the record $68.1 billion obtained in 2022 and dangerously close to the $50.3 billion of the pandemic year (2020).