Editor’s Note
This analysis from TD Securities highlights potential headwinds for precious metals in Q2, citing evolving Fed policy and trade dynamics as key factors to watch.
New developments from the Federal Reserve and potential changes in trade tariffs could diminish the supportive factors for precious metals in the second quarter, according to Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities.
Melek highlighted that the market is currently pricing in a more hawkish stance from the Fed, which is strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold and silver prices. Concurrently, discussions around potential tariff escalations, particularly concerning China, are creating uncertainty that could dampen investor appetite for safe-haven assets like precious metals in the near term.
He noted that while long-term structural drivers for precious metals remain intact—including central bank buying and geopolitical risks—the immediate macroeconomic and trade policy environment appears less favorable.