【法国】Luxury Market Could Reach €2.5 Trillion by 2030

The global luxury market had a record year in 2023, with an estimated value of €1.5 trillion, representing an 8-10% increase over the previous year at real rates. The personal luxury goods market, in particular, is estimated to have grown by +4% during the same period, reaching €362 billion, driven by product categories such as apparel and jewelry.

While a record, this growth was tempered month by month by a return to normalcy after two years of post-Covid ultra-dynamism: according to the study, only two-thirds of luxury brands experienced growth in 2023, compared to 95% in 2022.

In an inflationary context, luxury players benefited from price increases and consumer preference for direct retail channels—which offer higher margins—but also had to contend with rising costs (labor, energy, etc.) while continuing to invest in modernizing their online and offline infrastructure.

With personal luxury goods sales of approximately €102 billion, Europe regained its leading position in 2023. While economic uncertainties impacted local consumer purchases, this region could rely on a significant VIP clientele and the recovery of tourist flows: last year, tourist spending on luxury products in Europe—in major cities as well as in seaside resorts—increased by +50% compared to 2022. This figure is primarily attributable to an increase in the average basket size, as the number of customers and the number of purchases actually decreased.

The Americas region slowed throughout 2023, at -8% to €101 billion. Faced with a dollar that remained strong against the euro, consumers favored spending outside their borders.

Finally, personal luxury goods sales in Mainland China climbed by +9% during a year of mixed performance: boosted by the reopening of stores in the first quarter, the country experienced a gradual slowdown in the face of new macroeconomic concerns that prompted consumers to revise their investment territories. The report’s authors, however, remain confident in the recovery: according to them, Chinese consumers should quickly regain their pre-Covid-19 status as the dominant nationality for luxury products, representing 35 to 40% of global purchases by 2030. Mainland China, as a territory, should also establish itself as the largest luxury market, concentrating 24 to 26% of global purchases. All within an Asia zone lifted by strong luxury performance in Japan and Thailand.

While in 2024, luxury brands should also benefit from their attractiveness in high-potential areas such as the Middle East (Dubai, Saudi Arabia) or Australia, the report also emphasizes the crucial role of mono-brand stores. As true platforms for expressing values, these stores experienced +11% growth in 2023.

Mono-brand stores and online channels are expected to become the main luxury shopping channels, representing an estimated market share of 60% to 66% by 2030.

Last year, the pre-owned luxury market was valued at €45 billion, up 4 to 6% according to Bain & Company. A growth relatively similar to last year’s, while Europe remains the number one market for pre-loved luxury, just ahead of the USA, concentrating 45 to 50% of sales. What are the most sought-after products? Hard luxury, with watches and jewelry accounting for more than 80% of the market.

Sustainable, exclusive, often cheaper… pre-owned luxury continues to find its place with consumers looking to bypass the price increases seen in new goods, particularly younger generations. It is worth noting that Gen Y, Z, and Alpha are expected to represent nearly 85% of luxury purchases by 2030.

In 2024, personal luxury goods are expected to experience moderate growth, between +1% and +4%. Depending on consumer confidence levels and the speed of recovery in certain strategic markets (China, USA), the increase could even reach +5 to +7%.

In the longer term, spending in the luxury market as a whole could reach €2.5 trillion by 2030.