Editor’s Note
This article highlights a synchronized market event on February 13th, where a sudden sell-off swept across precious metals, equities, and oil, coinciding with a sharp rally in U.S. Treasuries. It underscores the interconnected nature of modern financial markets during periods of volatility.
On Thursday, February 13th, during the trading session, the precious metals market encountered a sudden and intense wave of selling pressure. OEXN observed that both gold and silver prices plunged significantly around midday, with this volatility showing clear interconnectedness: platinum, palladium, copper, major US stock indices, and crude oil prices all fell to their daily lows almost simultaneously, while safe-haven US Treasury bonds surged to their daily highs.
Regarding this unusual movement lacking clear fundamental news drivers, it is highly likely triggered by position adjustments by large investment banks or hedge funds. OEXN believes that when certain markets face heavy pressure, institutions may choose to collectively unwind large long positions. This chain reaction created a form of “flash crash” across multiple liquidity-sensitive markets. As of the intraday session, April gold futures fell by $120.00 to $4,980.00, while March silver recorded a drop of $7.75 to $76.20.
Beyond speculation about institutional selling, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release on Friday is also a Sword of Damocles hanging over the market. Rumors have even circulated in the market about an unexpectedly high CPI reading. While OEXN stated that these rumors remain unsubstantiated for now, traders’ willingness to adjust positions by closing out trades ahead of the key data release has significantly increased. The current consensus forecast among analysts for the year-on-year growth rate of January CPI is 2.5%, unchanged from the previous reading.
Meanwhile, the direction of external markets is also not optimistic. A moderate rebound in the US Dollar Index and the decline in crude oil prices around $62.75 further eroded support for metal prices. OEXN believes this cross-asset panic amplified technical pressure. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 4.1%, reflecting deep market divisions regarding the inflation path.
From a technical perspective, the defensive focus for gold bulls has shifted lower. To regain upward momentum, it must successfully close above the $5,250.00 resistance level; otherwise, prices may further test the deeper support at $4,670.00. The trend for silver appears even weaker, with bulls currently struggling to defend the $74.00 level. If the lost ground at $80.00 cannot be recovered subsequently, bearish forces may continue to dominate.
Considering that current volatility in the gold and silver markets has entered a sensitive range, OEXN advises investors to closely monitor the gains and losses of key levels such as $4,900.00 and $72.50, and to be vigilant against the risk of secondary volatility caused by tightening liquidity ahead of the data release.
