Editor’s Note
This analysis examines the recent divergence in platinum and palladium prices, highlighting how supply-side pressures and regulatory factors are currently outweighing traditional demand drivers for these metals.
Platinum ended the trading week at $2,061, losing 1.4% on a weekly basis and accumulating a 4.4% decline since the beginning of the month. Palladium closed at $1,681, remaining unchanged week-on-week and posting a 2.3% gain for the current month. This divergence between the two key platinum group metals (PGMs) in the short term is driven less by classic end-demand and more by supply-side issues and political regulation.
For platinum, the debate is clearly shifting to the supply side. Major producers are currently not focusing on aggressive expansion but are prioritizing dividends and balance sheet stability. Valterra Platinum, the spin-off from Anglo American, as well as Impala Platinum and Zimplats, emphasize capital discipline. Rising energy and labor costs, along with the experience of delayed investment cycles, have left their mark. New large-scale projects are only being initiated hesitantly.
This restraint dampens the expectation that higher prices will automatically lead to a rapid expansion of supply. The market must prepare for the fact that structural shortages will not be resolved in the short term. At the same time, sentiment remains vulnerable to abrupt shifts in direction. While Sibanye Stillwater expects continued volatility in platinum group metals, it considers a return to previous lows unlikely. Additionally, the company is examining the potential restart of the Stillwater West mine in the USA – a step that would be particularly relevant for palladium but would also influence the entire PGM segment.
For palladium, US trade policy is moving to the forefront. In Washington, the push to impose additional tariffs on Russian imports is gaining momentum. The process is not yet complete, but the political direction alone is shifting expectations. This is crucial for the market because trade flows could be reorganized: material that traditionally flowed to the USA is likely to increasingly go to Asia, while North American buyers will need to seek alternative sources.
Parallel to this, Nornickel is sending new signals. The company emphasizes the stronger orientation of its sales towards Asian markets and anticipates a rather balanced market picture for palladium in the medium term. This moderates the scenario of an acute structural deficit that could drive prices over a longer period. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions continue to distort price formation. Even small regulatory changes can trigger significant capital flows as institutional investors review their exposure to Russian material.
From a technical perspective, platinum is in a transitional phase. The price is oscillating between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The short-term average is above the long-term average, supporting a positive base pattern. With an ADX value of 25.1 points, there is a pronounced trend strength, even though a clear breakout is still lacking. Setbacks tend to encounter buying interest, which stabilizes the medium- to long-term picture.
Palladium shows a similar pattern but with less momentum. Here too, the price moves between the SMA50 and SMA200. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average, which is fundamentally constructive. The ADX of 24.9 points signals a moderate trend that is not yet pointing in a clear direction. New fundamental impulses are needed to trigger a sustained upward or downward movement.
The release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting is considered the next significant impulse. The details of the interest rate debate are likely to have an immediate impact on the dollar and US Treasury yields. This is crucial for platinum and palladium, as both metals are sensitive to changes in financing conditions and currency movements.
The coming days therefore promise increased volatility – not only due to geopolitical factors but also because of the broader monetary policy environment.