Editor’s Note
The following analysis examines gold’s remarkable performance in 2025 and its emerging role as a strategic asset amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Following a period of explosive 60% growth in gold prices in 2025, the global commodity market in 2026 may face risks from energy oversupply and fluctuations in US tariffs.
Analysts believe that gold is likely to be the best-performing commodity in 2025 with a price increase rate of 60%. This surge is due to accumulation by central banks and investors’ risk-averse tendencies ahead of new US economic policies. Amid current geopolitical instability, gold is now seen as an effective alternative to US Treasury bonds.
Crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets are expected to face significant pressure in 2025. The main reason is the anticipated increase in production and a peace agreement expected to allow the return of Russian crude oil to the open market. In particular, the commissioning of several new plants in the US is leading to a rapid increase in LNG supply.
The table below shows energy imports from the US to the European Union based on Kepler data:
Energy Index (EU vs. US)
2024 2025
Total Import Value (in billion USD) 79.1 82.3
Crude Oil Volume (million barrels per day) 1.91 1.73
LNG Volume (million tons) 45.14 72.24
Coal Volume (million tons) 20.44 20.73
Forecasts for 2026 suggest that it is unlikely for the EU to triple its energy imports from the US due to limitations in physical supply capacity. In the short term, oil and gas prices are expected to continue facing pressure from oversupply.
Copper prices reached record highs in December 2025, driven by heavy imports of copper into the US to avoid tariffs set to take effect in early 2026. It is estimated that the US doubled its copper imports in 2025 to build up stocks. In 2026, demand for copper from the US may decrease as stocks are released, providing opportunities for countries like China to increase their purchasing power.
Additionally, the focus of investment in 2026 will be on rare earth elements and strategic minerals like lithium and cobalt. The administration of President Donald Trump is expected to promote the development of independent supply chains to reduce dependence on China for the mining and refining of minerals.
The iron ore market largely depends on the demand from Chinese steel mills, which consume about 75% of global seaborne shipments. However, prices may face pressure in 2026 as significant production from the Simandou mine project in Guinea begins to enter the market.
Coal price fluctuations will be influenced by the pace of the shift towards renewable energy in China and India. If global economic growth slows and new supply from mining and fossil fuel projects continues to enter the market steadily, this commodity will become more volatile than gold.