Editor’s Note
This analysis examines gold’s sustained momentum following a historic rally. With prices breaching key thresholds and posting their strongest Q1 performance in decades, the article explores the factors driving this surge and the outlook for the precious metal in the coming year.
Gold continues to be the center of attention; after an unusually bullish year, analysts and financial managers project that the precious metal could continue gaining ground in 2026.
When gold surpassed $3,000 per ounce mid-year, analysts were already predicting that this rally had only just begun. In fact, the precious metal had not recorded such a strong rise in a first quarter since 1974.
In March, gold had already risen 12.7%, and from the start of 2024 until that point, the price per ounce of gold had risen 45.8%.
Specifically, in April, gold marked a new milestone in its record history by briefly reaching $3,500 for the first time. A day later, gold retreated from its all-time high when US President Donald Trump hinted at possible reductions in trade tariffs on China, while retracting his criticisms against the Federal Reserve. Specifically, gold fell 3.2%, settling at $3,273.69 per ounce.
On September 2nd, the price per ounce reached $3,540, thus marking another new all-time high.
The reason? The pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve to adopt a more lax monetary policy, doubts about long-term public debt, and geopolitical uncertainty. New records arrived as it reached $3,750 per ounce and, by the end of September, $3,690.
During 2025, gold has risen more than 50%, surpassing the historical rebounds recorded during the pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis. Furthermore, since October began, the rise is more than 3%, while in September it signed an almost 12% bullish rally.
The accumulated revaluation throughout the first nine months of the year was already around 60%.
By the end of the year, gold had already surpassed $4,000 per ounce in a race that left other historic moments.
After reaching the all-time high of $4,381 per ounce, the precious metal suffered its biggest drop in 12 years. Specifically, gold prices fell up to 5.2%, placing the commodity below $4,150, making this the lowest day for this asset since November 2020.
Not only that, but despite everything, in 2025 gold has experienced its moment of highest demand.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC) report for the third quarter of 2025, global gold demand reached 1,313 tonnes between July and September, the highest level ever recorded for a single quarter. In value terms, this represents US$146 billion, a year-on-year jump of approximately 44%. Total gold demand for the first nine months of the year stands at 3,717 tonnes. This is equivalent to a value of US$348 billion, an increase of 41% compared to the same period in 2024. The average price of gold during the third quarter was US$3,456 per ounce, with a 40% year-on-year increase.
In short, according to the WGC, the precious metal has reached more than 50 all-time highs in 2025 and has accumulated a return of over 60%.
What market prospects await us for 2026?
According to a recent analysis by the World Gold Council (WGC), gold could advance between 15% and 30% in 2026 if certain macroeconomic scenarios are met — especially if geopolitical tensions intensify, financial yields fall, and investors seek refuge in safe assets.
These projections agree that gold continues to be seen as a “safe haven” amid global uncertainty, and that its appeal is far from exhausted.
The reasons that would drive these increases focus on a volatile geopolitical context, which reinforces the demand for “safe” assets, or, among others, structural demand from central banks, especially in emerging countries — where reserves are still far below those of developed countries, suggesting there could be room for new gold purchases.
What does this context represent for the jewelry sector?
Once again, the sector must be prepared for another increase in the cost of raw materials and rising prices for the end consumer. A revaluation in inventory and antique pieces can also be experienced, finding an opportunity. In periods of economic uncertainty, part of the demand for gold can migrate towards its function as a “safe-haven value” — not only as a financial investment but as a physical and durable asset.
This can continue to drive demand for fine jewelry, bullion, coins, or collectible items as we have seen in 2025.
Again, an effective strategy for the sector will be necessary, considering that in 2025, the industry has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity and that new opportunities for manufacturing, design, and sale always arise.
The new scenario of 2026 can represent, once again, both an opportunity and a challenge, and in a market so sensitive to the metal’s fluctuations, the strategic management of supply, inventory, and prices will be key to adapting.