【Seoul, South】[Market Person] ‘Best Analyst’ Hwang Byung-jin “Gold’s Rise Not Over Yet…Target Price $6,000”

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Editor’s Note

This analysis highlights the persistent “K-shaped” divergence in economic recovery and cautions against premature strategic shifts in commodity investments, underscoring the ongoing volatility in financial markets.

“K-Shaped Flow” Persists in Weak Real Economy, Premature Shift to Copper is Risky

(Seoul=Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Yoo-hyang — “The ‘K-shaped flow’ continues in an environment where the real economy has not sufficiently recovered. A premature shift to copper could be risky,” said Hwang Byung-jin, head of the FICC Research Department at NH Investment & Securities.

Hwang advised that the recent sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices are merely a speed adjustment, not a change in direction, and it is not yet time to abandon gold. Recently selected as the ‘Best Analyst’ in the Commodities & Alternative Assets category at the Yonhap Infomax Financial Awards, Hwang emphasized that the real economy must strengthen overall for a full-scale capital shift to industrial metals like copper to occur.

He noted that the copper/gold ratio, which measures the relative performance of the risky asset copper and the safe-haven asset gold, has maintained a downward trend even after the recent gold price correction. “In this environment, the relatively stable commodity is still seen as gold,” he said.

Q&A with Analyst Hwang Byung-jin

— You gained attention for predicting last year’s surge in precious metal prices. What perspective do you prioritize when analyzing commodity markets?

“Commodities are an alternative investment vehicle but also become the most important indicator when gauging the real economy. When researching, analyzing, and providing investment opinions on commodities, I try to look at the real economic situation in detail.”

He added that while stock markets are hitting record highs and the IMF recently upgraded its economic growth forecast, he always verifies if this optimism is correct. NH Investment & Securities has maintained a stance since Q4 2024 to focus on metals, particularly gold, silver, and copper, over energy in its commodity portfolio.

— The sharp drop in gold and silver prices in late January shocked global asset markets. What do you see as the fundamental cause?

“Rather than gold price declines affecting other asset markets, I think it was an occasion where gold and silver prices gave a ‘warning’ to other asset markets in a situation where asset markets overall have risen almost non-stop for nearly two years.”

He explained that gold rose about 70% last year and silver about 150%. Even in January this year, gold rose 25% and silver nearly 70%, so it was a warning about speed. The market needed a breather, and the trigger was U.S. President Donald Trump nominating hawkish former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair.

— Some speculate that exchange authorities intentionally moved to lower prices.

“I’m cautious about discussing conspiracy theories… The U.S. included silver in its ‘critical minerals’ list late last year… It’s not desirable for prices to rise too fast as the U.S. needs to secure quantities long-term… It seems conspiracy theories emerge as commodities become central to hegemony competition.”

He believes these “triggers” led to profit-taking demand for gold and silver on the last day of January, but they were not factors for a directional change.

— The environment supporting gold’s rise includes real interest rates, dollar trust, and central bank demand. How long can this last?

“Currently, two themes are driving gold’s strength. First is investor buying… As long as the Fed’s monetary policy cycle maintains an easing bias, investors will continue buying, mainly via ETFs… Second is central bank purchases… If the perception persists that U.S. federal debt expansion continues and repayment willingness is low, the central bank buying trend is unlikely to change for the time being.”

— Domestic retail investors who invested as gold surged must have been shocked by the recent plunge. Is it a situation to be reassured about now?

“It probably wasn’t a surprise for those who have held since last year… I think it was a short-term event. I raised my gold price target to $6,000 per ounce in the last week of January.”

He sees no material yet to change gold’s direction. Gold is both a safe-haven and inflation hedge asset. Even if Jerome Powell’s term ends in May and Kevin Warsh leads the Fed, the outlook for a monetary easing bias hasn’t changed. With expectations for at least two rate cuts this year remaining, he judges the gold price rise cycle is not over.

— Some advise it’s time to focus on non-ferrous metals rather than gold or silver. Is there a change in commodity investor trends?

“I disagree with the opinion that the cycle is shifting to industrial metal copper because gold/silver prices fell sharply… The copper/gold ratio has been declining… This means gold’s relative strength continues compared to copper… The real economy must strengthen overall for a full-scale capital shift to copper, but the ‘K-shaped flow’ persists. In this environment, the relatively stable commodity is still seen as gold. A premature shift to copper could still be risky.”

— Public interest in commodity investment has grown with the gold surge. Any advice?

“Rather than indiscriminately approaching just because prices have risen a lot, it’s better to proactively learn and invest by understanding why the asset is good, the direction of the macro environment, and looking from top-down to bottom-up… For long-term investors, gold investment can be an attractive choice… For short-term, or cycle investors, it’s most desirable to invest while watching the monetary policy easing trend.”

— What is an appropriate commodity allocation in a portfolio for the general public?

“A typical neutral asset allocation portfolio is 50% stocks, 40% bonds, 10% alternative assets. Among alternatives, commodities are recommended at about 5% of the total portfolio… The only individual commodity suitable for a full 5% allocation is gold.”

— Domestic gold prices include a ‘Kimchi Premium’. There are also commissions and exchange rates to consider. What’s the most advantageous investment method?

“Physical gold purchase involves a 10% value-added tax, and sale involves a 10% capital gains tax, creating a tax burden for long-term holding. For short-term investment purposes, ETFs can be an alternative… The ‘Kimchi Premium’ is an institutional issue… It accumulates because the domestic gold futures market lacks sufficient market-making, limiting arbitrage participation.”

— At what stage are current gold, silver, and copper prices?

“Gold has regained the $5,000 level and is setting its direction upward… Gold is also taking a breather ahead of the U.S. January CPI release… Just three days after I presented my forecast of $6,000 per ounce within the year at the end of last month, (the gold price) reached $5,600. Rising this much is overheating. It’s good to stabilize while catching its breath.”
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⏰ Published on: February 15, 2026