【China】MDRi Consumer Forecast: Mainland China’s Luxury Market Poised for Growth in 2025

Editor’s Note

This analysis highlights a notable divergence in luxury spending intentions between Mainland China and Hong Kong for 2025. While overall consumer sentiment remains resilient, the data underscores how local economic outlooks, shaped by global monetary policy and geopolitics, are creating distinct market trajectories.

Consumer Sentiment and Spending Intentions

Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and uneven growth across luxury categories, overall willingness to spend on luxury goods remains high among respondents. The report shows that 56% of Mainland China’s luxury consumers plan to increase their spending in 2025, while in Hong Kong, this figure is only 48%. This disparity stems primarily from Hong Kong consumers’ cautious economic outlook, influenced by international monetary policies and geopolitical tensions.

Economic uncertainty continues to loom over Hong Kong, with 12% of its luxury consumers planning to reduce spending next year, compared to 9% in Mainland China. This cautious sentiment reflects widespread concerns among Hong Kong consumers about local economic stability. Furthermore, Mainland China’s luxury consumers exhibit positive sentiment about the future, with 87% of mainland respondents expressing optimism, compared to only 64% in Hong Kong.

Luxury spending in Mainland China is expected to be driven by high-end jewelry, handbags, and travel experiences, with nearly 60% of consumers planning to increase their budget for luxury travel. In contrast, positive sentiment in the Hong Kong market appears more subdued, with the luxury market showing a trend of polarization. In Hong Kong, over 10% of consumers plan to reduce spending across various luxury categories, particularly in areas like handbags (9%) and travel experiences (4%), reflecting a more conservative consumer attitude.

The report emphasizes that understanding the evolving preferences of luxury consumers in both Mainland China and Hong Kong is crucial for navigating the rapidly changing market landscape.

“The Mainland China luxury market is currently undergoing significant transformation. Recent industry data shows two distinct trends, with some luxury groups seeing revenue declines in the Asia-Pacific region, while others continue to grow. This divergence has sparked industry-wide inquiry into the true sentiments of Chinese luxury consumers. Luxury brands should delve deep into the personalized preferences, consumption behaviors, and spending expectations of these urban consumers to formulate more targeted and resonant marketing strategies. Strong consumer demand for high-end watches, handbags, jewelry, and travel experiences makes these categories the primary drivers of industry growth. Brands that base their product development and marketing plans on consumer insights will solidify their leading positions in these high-potential luxury segments; those that can continuously monitor and quickly respond to shifts in consumer preferences will dominate in these high-demand areas.”
Five Key Trends Shaping China’s Luxury Market in 2025
1. Premium Lifestyle and Experiences

Mainland Chinese consumers are increasingly prioritizing luxury goods related to lifestyle, with 57% planning to increase spending on physical and mental wellness, fitness, and premium travel. Gen Z focuses on self-care and well-being, while millennials seek exclusive adventure experiences that create lasting memories. Notably, wellness and spa programs are among the top choices for the youngest generation of mainland consumers (aged 21-25) planning to increase spending in the next 12 months (63%, ranking second only to physical/mental wellness and fitness at 64%). The findings suggest that Mainland China’s youngest luxury consumers are willing to invest in their long-term well-being, presenting opportunities for luxury brands to develop relevant products and services that align with this group’s vision for health, self-development, and overall quality of life.

2. Shopping Destinations

First-tier cities in Mainland China, especially Shanghai, remain primary luxury shopping hubs. However, Sanya is rapidly emerging, driven by duty-free policies, with 23% of Mainland China’s luxury consumers shopping there in 2024. Hong Kong as a luxury shopping destination remains attractive to consumers from third-tier cities, but its appeal to first-tier city consumers has declined, as they can now enjoy similar high-end shopping experiences without traveling far. Hong Kong’s appeal to non-first-tier city luxury consumers is partly due to the mainland government’s active promotion of travel to Hong Kong.

3. Preference for Domestic Brands

Rising national pride is influencing Mainland Chinese consumers’ preference for domestic luxury goods, with 56% planning to purchase more Chinese luxury brands in 2025. Mainland luxury consumers value the integration of Chinese cultural elements and aesthetics into products. They favor luxury brands that reflect Chinese aesthetics in their products, utilize traditional craftsmanship or fabrics, and subtly incorporate Chinese traditions. Millennials seek a balance between international prestige and national pride, simultaneously stimulating demand for both French and Chinese brands, especially in high-end watchmaking and haute couture. The success and influence of Chinese luxury brands are expected to change the future direction of the global luxury industry, setting new benchmarks and pushing the boundaries of luxury in the coming years.

4. Sustainability and Secondhand Luxury

Sustainability has become a core value for Mainland Chinese consumers, with 85% stating it is very important, and 42% willing to pay a premium for sustainable luxury goods. Young luxury consumers (aged 21-25) are leading the secondhand luxury trend, showing growing interest in pre-owned high-end goods, highlighting increasing environmental awareness. The secondhand luxury market is also thriving, with 59% of Mainland China’s luxury consumers reporting purchases of secondhand items in 2024, particularly small leather goods and footwear. Young consumers, especially Gen Z, view secondhand luxury as a way to express personal style, not merely a cost-saving option.

5. The Role of Technology and AI in the Luxury Industry

Mainland consumers are gradually embracing technology-led luxury experiences, with nine out of ten surveyed consumers willing to pay more for innovative products. AI-powered personalization is seen as key to creating customized customer experiences, but 66% of respondents remain cautious about AI-led mass customization.

As consumer tastes evolve and the middle class expands, Chinese luxury consumers are becoming more international, tech-savvy, and discerning. It is estimated that 42-47%[1] of Chinese luxury spending will flow to overseas markets, with the Mainland China luxury market leading global trends. Future growth drivers will come from domestic brands, sustainability, and the growing influence of young consumers.

Looking back at 2024, the Mainland China luxury market showed robust growth, with per capita annual spending reaching RMB 234,500, a 7% year-on-year increase. Spending growth in second-tier cities reached 22%, surpassing that of first-tier cities. The Hong Kong market saw moderate growth in luxury spending, with average spending increasing by 3% to HKD 223,900. Spending on high-value items like jewelry (+64%) and handbags (+66%) saw significant growth, reflecting a consumer trend towards higher-priced purchases.

The survey was conducted from April to May 2024, involving 1,500 Mainland China luxury consumers and 500 Hong Kong luxury consumers. All respondents had purchased luxury goods within the past 12 months, with a minimum spend of 50,000 in local currency.

“The Chinese luxury market is undergoing profound transformation, primarily influenced by the preferences of the younger generation, especially Gen Z. They are not only redefining luxury consumption but are also poised to reshape the global luxury industry landscape. Their pursuit of personalization, wellness, and sustainability, coupled with a strong preference for innovative Chinese brands, marks a shift from the traditional luxury paradigm. As they place greater value on unique experiences and meaning rather than mere material possession, both established and emerging brands must adapt to these evolving shopping expectations. Only by continuously understanding consumer needs, building solid customer relationships, and investing in personalized services and comprehensive wellness programs can luxury brands enhance customer loyalty and build lasting relationships with this discerning consumer group, ultimately driving innovation across the industry.”

[1] BoF – McKinsey ‘State of Fashion 2025 Report’

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⏰ Published on: December 13, 2024