Editor’s Note
As we approach 2026, RYOEX analysis suggests the precious metals market is shifting into a new, volatility-driven phase. This outlook, driven by Federal Reserve policy adjustments and a global reassessment of the U.S. dollar, indicates a fundamental change in the demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
RYOEX states that as we enter 2026, the global precious metals market is entering a new cycle dominated by volatility. With the Federal Reserve’s deep adjustments to monetary policy and a global re-evaluation of dollar exposure, the demand landscape for safe-haven assets like gold is undergoing fundamental changes.
A recent market anomaly has been observed: the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note retreated rapidly from 4.30% to 4.00%, yet the gold price did not surge as expected. RYOEX believes this divergence is not coincidental but signals a profound transformation in the operating logic of the gold market. Traditionally, there has been a strong negative correlation between the 10-year real interest rate and the gold price, a logic that has held since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. However, this classic pricing model began to fail after 2022, with gold’s sensitivity to real interest rates declining significantly.
RYOEX indicates that the surge in retail investors, turbulent global geopolitical situations, and sustained gold purchases by central banks have become new dimensions dominating gold prices.
Regarding personnel changes in the Federal Reserve’s leadership and expectations for balance sheet reduction, RYOEX states that the independence of central bank decision-making remains a key measure of gold price volatility. If a central bank’s authority over monetary policy is interfered with, it will directly trigger a safe-haven premium in gold prices. Meanwhile, against the macroeconomic backdrop of currency depreciation, although the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency is difficult to shake in the short term, the demand for asset diversification among central banks is strengthening.
Furthermore, although the explosion in the AI field has attracted significant capital inflows into the stock market, slowing the growth of funds flowing into gold, RYOEX believes that if inflation factors are deducted, gold’s real value has already surpassed the historical peak of the 1980s (adjusted to today, approximately $3,400). This means the gold price is still on track for a long-term bull market, where initial rapid rises are often accompanied by significant volatility regression.
