Editor’s Note
Recent volatility in precious metals markets has seen sharp price declines for gold and silver, prompting analysts to caution about near-term corrections. However, many institutional investors maintain a positive long-term outlook. This article examines the factors behind the current fluctuations and the broader market sentiment.
Recently, international precious metal prices have shown a downward trend. On February 17, spot silver prices fell by over 6% at one point, while gold fell by nearly 3% at its peak. Precious metal concept stocks in the U.S. market collectively declined. Market data showed that spot silver prices intraday fell to $71.96 per ounce, the lowest level since February 9. Spot gold intraday fell to $4,842.67 per ounce, also the lowest since February 9.
This price decline was not driven by a single factor. On the news front, in the second round of Iran-U.S. negotiations that concluded on the 17th, the two sides reached agreement on some general issues, showing signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar intraday was also a bearish factor for precious metals.
Since the beginning of 2026, gold and silver have experienced even more dramatic “roller coaster” price movements. Currently, the precious metals market has shifted from a “one-sided rally” to “range-bound volatility,” driven by a complex interplay of financial attributes and industrial demand, as well as macroeconomic expectations and geopolitical risks. Previously, with gold and silver prices having accumulated substantial gains, market sentiment being extremely sensitive, and being highly susceptible to news-driven fluctuations, this exacerbated panic selling in the market, thereby amplifying price volatility. The highly volatile market conditions have also significantly increased trading difficulty for investors, placing higher demands on trading flexibility and risk control capabilities.
However, views from multiple institutions suggest that in the current complex and ever-changing global economic landscape, the gold and silver markets, as traditional safe-haven assets and important vehicles for industrial demand, still have solid long-term fundamentals.
ANZ Bank released its latest research report, raising its gold price forecast from the previous $5,400 per ounce to $5,800 per ounce, expecting this target to be achieved in the second quarter of 2026. The bank stated in the report that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is expected to further ease, geopolitical tensions may intensify, and the U.S. dollar is expected to continue weakening.
ANZ emphasized in the report that investors are gradually diversifying their asset allocations and reducing their U.S. dollar exposure.
Ping An Securities’ research report points out that the long-term trend for gold remains solid. Against the backdrop of monetary oversupply and fiscal deficit monetization, the credibility of the U.S. dollar system is being challenged; coupled with frequent global geopolitical turmoil driving diversification of asset reserves, demand for gold as a safe asset continues to rise. The global trend of “de-dollarization” makes gold likely to become a new pricing anchor, giving precious metals upward momentum. The logic supporting gold prices—”Fed rate cut cycle + heightened overseas uncertainty + global de-dollarization trend”—still exists.
The Guotai Haitong macro analysis team believes that, from a medium to long-term perspective, silver prices remain supported. First, emerging industries represented by photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI servers are creating structural, continuously growing demand for silver. Second, gold and silver prices move in sync. Since 2022, global central bank gold purchases have pushed up gold prices. Central bank gold buying is long-term and sustained, reflecting the restructuring of the monetary system following changes in the foundation of trust among major powers. Currently, the proportion of gold reserves in emerging economies is far lower than in developed economies, and the pace of gold purchases is expected to accelerate in the future. Third, in November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey included silver in its critical minerals list for the first time, potentially upgrading it from an ordinary commodity to a strategic asset. In September 2024, Russia listed silver as a foreign exchange reserve asset. In April 2026, the Reserve Bank of India implemented new regulations allowing silver to serve as collateral for banks and non-banking financial institutions. Some economies may increase their silver reserves, which is expected to provide long-term support for silver prices.
Cao Shanshan, a senior researcher at COFCO Futures Research Institute, believes that for gold, expectations of Fed rate cuts and the weakening credibility of the U.S. dollar, combined with the resonance of “structural buying” by global central banks and “cyclical buying” by ETFs, form the core support for the upward shift in gold’s price center. It is expected that in 2026, accommodative policies and uncertainty will persist, but the rate of increase may be lower than in 2025, requiring flexible trading around event windows. The long-term bullish view remains unchanged. Having been consistently bullish on gold since 2018, the current upward trend is maintained, with corrections likely to be shallow and the bias remaining upward.
Analysts at Dongfang Jincheng believe that in 2026, under the trend of reshaping gold’s pricing logic and evolving role, the fundamental factors supporting gold price increases in recent years will continue to play a role, and international gold prices are expected to rise to $6,000 per ounce.
The upward trend for silver is also not over. First, according to historical patterns, 70%-80% of silver’s attributes align with gold, and an upward trend in gold drives silver higher. Second, there is fundamental support. Silver is a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc mining; capital expenditure is based on the primary products, with an average annual growth rate of only 2%-3%. High silver prices cannot stimulate increased supply, thus supply growth is limited. After AI demand offsets the decline in photovoltaic demand, there is still room for growth. Semiconductor demand growth is conservatively estimated at 8%, leading to stable and rising industrial demand.
Although many institutional views support a positive long-term outlook for the gold and silver markets, judging from the significant volatility recently seen in global precious metal markets, short-term price movements are becoming increasingly difficult to predict under the intertwining of multiple factors, posing a severe test for investor risk appetite and asset allocation strategies.
Guotai Haitong macro analysis points out that from the perspective of the gold-silver ratio, silver’s previous catch-up rally may have evolved into short-term overbought conditions, warranting caution against a silver price correction risk. After October 2018, gold prices decoupled from U.S. Treasury real interest rates, meaning non-economic factors have an increasingly large impact on gold prices.
Ye Qianning, a precious metals researcher at GF Futures Research Institute, believes that during the Spring Festival period, overseas macroeconomic uncertainties remain high. On one hand, liquidity in the U.S. stock and bond markets is affected by U.S. economic data and policy expectations, easily triggering programmatic selling. On the other hand, the recovery in investment demand from central banks and ETFs needs time to be verified. Currently, for gold, attention should be paid to the support of the 20-day moving average and changes in volatility. If negative news emerges, gold prices may test the 60-day moving average again. For silver, the current situation of structural supply tightness and low inventories still supports prices, but demand from downstream enterprises weakened during the Spring Festival, and exchange restrictions may inhibit price rebound momentum.
Ye Qianning further cautioned.
Analysts at Dongfang Jincheng believe that in 2026, potential variables surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair nomination and the policy choices if Wash is successfully elected Fed Chair, market fluctuations in expectations for Fed rate cuts, potential volatility in U.S. dollar liquidity, market debates over “AI valuation bubbles,” and changes in geopolitical and economic risks may all cause disturbances to gold prices and amplify price volatility through market sentiment.