Editor’s Note
Early forecasts for the 2024 holiday season point to modest but steady retail sales growth, with a clear emphasis on the continued rise of e-commerce, mobile shopping, and AI-driven tools.
The first predictions about the 2024 holiday season have begun rolling in, with Deloitte forecasting 2 to 3 percent retail sales growth and a “solid” holiday overall, and Adobe Analytics touting the importance of mobile shopping and generative AI.
New York—It’s shaping up to be a merry holiday season for retailers, perhaps even more so for those with a strong online presence, according to two recent holiday reports.
Holiday retail sales are expected to increase between 2.3 and 3.3 percent this year, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, released last month.
Dollar-wise, Deloitte said holiday sales are projected to total between $1.58 trillion and $1.59 trillion from November to January 2025.
It would be a slowdown compared with last year when holiday sales rose 4.3 percent year-over-year from November to January (considered by Deloitte to be the holiday period) totaling $1.54 trillion.
E-commerce is expected to be a key driver of retail sales this holiday season, with Deloitte forecasting growth between 7 to 9 percent year-over-year, with sales totaling between $289 billion and $294 billion.
During the 2023 holiday season, e-commerce sales grew 10.1 percent, totaling an estimated $270 billion.
In its report, also released last month, Adobe Analytics shared insights on online shopping this holiday season.
These are the top six takeaways from Adobe’s report.
U.S. online sales are expected to hit record levels, said Adobe.
The Adobe report forecasted 8 percent year-over-year growth to $240.8 billion this holiday season, which it considers to be Nov. 1 to Dec. 31.
Last year, shoppers spent $221.8 billion online, a 5 percent year-over-year increase.
Shoppers also are expected to spend a record amount shopping on their mobile devices.
The report forecasted 13 percent year-over-year growth in mobile sales to $121.8 billion, which would account for a 53 percent share of online spending this season, compared with a 47 percent share for desktop shopping.
Spending during so-called Cyber Week, the five-day period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is expected to rise 7 percent year-over-year to $40.6 billion.
Adobe said it expects Cyber Monday to be the biggest shopping day of the season and the year, with spending expected to rise 6 percent to $13.2 billion.
However, Black Friday (10 percent) and Thanksgiving Day (9 percent) are expected to outpace Cyber Monday in terms of year-over-year growth.
Consumers will spend an estimated $10.8 billion on Black Friday and $6.1 billion on Thanksgiving, said Adobe.
In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 71 percent said they plan to shop online on Black Friday while 70 percent said they proactively check for deals during Cyber Week.
In its report, Deloitte noted that inflation may act as both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales.
Adobe found that months of “persistent inflation” led shoppers to buy less expensive goods across the major e-commerce categories.
However, Adobe expects to see this trend reverse for the holiday season, with sales of the most expensive goods in the categories it tracks set to increase by 19 percent compared with pre-season trends, largely due to competitive discounting.
It expects this effect to be strong in the sporting goods categories, as well as electronics and appliances, with a modest rise for apparel and toys.
The furniture and bedding and groceries categories may see a drop as consumers opt for lower-priced products.
This year, Adobe’s data found that influencers are converting shoppers 10 times more than social media alone, a trend that is expected to continue this holiday season.
In Adobe’s survey, 37 percent of Gen Z respondents said they purchased something based on an influencer’s recommendation. (Members of Generation Z are currently about 12 to 27 years old.)
As for other marketing tools, paid search remained the top driver of retail sales, accounting for 28 percent of online revenue from Jan. 1 to Sept. 3, and is expected to grow by 1 to 3 percent this holiday season.
