Editor’s Note
This article highlights a dramatic shift in the diamond market, where once-high-value purchases now face steep depreciation. It serves as a reminder to consumers to carefully consider the long-term investment potential of luxury goods versus more stable assets.
A netizen claims a diamond ring bought for 14,000 yuan ten years ago can now only be sold for 200 yuan. Consumers lament: “Had I known, I would have bought gold instead.”
Tao Shutao World (Member of the Gemmological Association of Great Britain, author of “The Complete Guide to European Antique Jewelry”) posted on 2025-12-11:
By the end of 2025, a price halving for lab-grown diamonds is naturally expected. Historical data shows a general decline in natural diamond prices, influenced by market demand and mineral supply. In contrast, lab-grown diamond prices, unconstrained by mineral supply, have been on a continuous downward trajectory, falling from around $6,000 to about $1,000 per carat between 2016 and 2022.
A more recent chart tracking lab-grown diamond prices on PriceScope since 2020 shows a significant drop around 2023, coinciding with several large Indian natural diamond cutting companies beginning to produce and polish CVD diamonds. This chart is based on real-time data from over 400,000 (and growing) lab-grown diamonds listed on PriceScope.
Looking at the most recent three-month data from October 1 to December 1, 2025, prices for round lab-grown diamonds below 0.5 carats continued to decline, while diamonds larger than this size generally saw price increases. This growth is likely driven by market demand as the year-end holiday season (Christmas and New Year) approaches, which significantly impacts the global diamond market due to robust demand.
said New York diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky in The New York Times.
Forbes also reported that the increasing popularity of affordable lab-grown diamonds is putting significant downward pressure on natural diamond prices. After a brief boom during the pandemic, natural diamond prices have fallen to multi-year lows.
Martin Rapaport, founder of the Rapaport Diamond Report and the online diamond trading platform RapNet, recently faced fierce criticism for lowering diamond prices in the “Rapaport Price List” in January 2025. A viral Instagram video showed him arguing with dealers about the “reality of price declines.”
For lab-grown diamonds, industry experts expect prices to fall further as production capacity expands and manufacturing costs decrease in China and India.
said Cormac Kinney, CEO of Diamond Standard.
The market may split into two major segments: truly rare, certified natural diamonds (such as rare, flawless, or colored diamonds) will retain or even increase in value, while common natural diamonds (especially small ones), which are visually indistinguishable from lab-grown diamonds, are likely to continue depreciating.
In the coming years, consumers may be able to buy natural diamonds at lower prices. Those holding diamonds as assets should lower their expectations for “value preservation or appreciation.” Most signs point to continued price declines, making a rebound difficult to imagine.
User “Kai Er Qi” posted on 2025-12-11:
The reason for the diamond price plunge lies in a fundamental change in the logic of diamond supply. For over a century, the diamond market’s supply logic was based on natural mining, with rough diamond mines controlled by a few Western companies. Prices were dictated by these Western monopolies, who claimed natural diamonds were extremely scarce. Whether they were truly as scarce as claimed was irrelevant.
Until China arrived. Contrary to popular belief, lab-grown diamonds are not a recent invention. However, for decades, the cost of producing synthetic diamonds was very high, sometimes even higher than natural diamonds, with small, poor-quality rough stones unsuitable for gem use.
In recent years, China has mastered diamond cultivation technology, making it commercially viable, scalable, and crucially, cost-effective. High-quality diamonds can now be produced in Chinese workshops using raw materials, machines, and electricity.
Zhecheng County in Henan Province is the center of China’s lab-grown diamond production. The raw materials for producing diamonds are not expensive, China has abundant and cheap electricity, and it can domestically produce diamond-making machines—the six-sided cubic press (HTHP method). As equipment China can produce independently without being constrained, a powerful six-sided cubic press costs only two to three million yuan, making it an affordable production tool.
With the diamond production supply chain now complete, diamonds have become an industrial product, one that can be mass-produced in Chinese counties. This is China’s diamond production workshop, with rows of cubic presses producing diamond rough around the clock.
Once the issue of diamond rough is solved, the remaining steps are cutting and processing—tasks that are not considered high-tech. Even India has large-scale diamond cutting centers. To put it bluntly, if even India can handle it, how advanced can it be?
Thus, the supply and sales logic for diamonds can become similar to that of glass: produce as much as needed in the workshop. Payment received, goods shipped. This is completely different from the production and sales model dominated by Western monopolies. The difference between buying a diamond and buying a piece of glass or a glass cup is minimal.
And guess which country has the world’s largest glass production capacity? Are glass cups expensive?
Furthermore, China’s diamond production technology is continuously improving. Power Diamond Company has produced a rough stone weighing up to 156.47 carats this year. Chinese lab-grown diamond companies can mass-produce rough diamonds ranging from 10 to 50 carats.
For an industrial product that even Chinese counties can produce, prices are no longer dictated by foreign manufacturers. A price plunge is inevitable.
It’s similar to new energy vehicles. In the era of foreign-dominated internal combustion engine cars, vehicles with 0-100 km/h acceleration under four seconds started at over a million yuan. Now, Chinese new energy vehicles offer ample horsepower. Want to experience the push-back feeling of sub-4-second acceleration? Just over a hundred thousand yuan will do.
Currently, a 1-carat lab-grown diamond with decent color, clarity, and cut can be found for around 1,300 yuan in Douyin live streams. But I still think it’s expensive. The price of a 1-carat diamond has fallen 90% in recent years. Previously, 13,000 yuan couldn’t buy a 1-carat diamond. So, why can’t diamond prices fall another 90%? Why couldn’t we buy a 5-carat or 10-carat diamond for 1,000 yuan in the future? After all, glass is that cheap.