【越南】Commodity Market 2025-2026: Gold Prices Surge 60%, Energy Sector Faces Oversupply Pressure

Significant changes are anticipated in the global commodity market in 2025 due to the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. While gold has emerged as a major safe-haven investment option with impressive growth, energy and industrial metals are facing an oversupply problem as they enter 2026.
Gold officially became the most prominent commodity in 2025, with its value increasing by 60%. This surge was driven by aggressive purchases by central banks and investors’ tendency to avoid risk ahead of new US economic policies. In international portfolios, gold has effectively replaced US Treasury bonds as the top safe investment.

In contrast to rising gold prices, a massive increase in the supply of oil and gas is being observed. Crude oil prices are under significant pressure in 2025 due to increased production, the potential return of Russian crude oil to the open market, and hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine.
Regarding liquefied natural gas (LNG), the commissioning of several plants in the US has forced producers to lower prices to clear stocks. Notably, the European Union’s commitment to purchase $250 billion worth of energy annually from the US is considered impossible to fulfill. Actual figures indicate:

“Total import value: Will reach $82.3 billion in 2025 (a slight increase compared to $79.1 billion in 2024).”

“Coal: Stable at 20.73 million tons.”

Experts estimate that due to limitations in physical supply capacity, the European Union will not be able to triple its energy imports from the US by 2026.

Copper prices reached record highs in December 2025 as US businesses increased imports to stockpile ahead of new tariffs taking effect in 2026. It is estimated that US copper imports will decline next year as stocks are released, giving China an opportunity to increase its purchases.
Furthermore, key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements are expected to be “beneficiaries” in 2026. The US government plans to continue heavy investment in building independent supply chains and reduce reliance on China’s dominance in mining and refining.

Iron ore and coal markets are largely dependent on the Chinese economy. Iron ore prices could face pressure in 2026 due to the start of production at the Simandou mine in Guinea. Similarly, thermal coal prices will be affected by the rate of increase in domestic production and the growing trend towards renewable energy in China and India.

Overall, the biggest risk for the commodity market in 2026 lies not only in tariff policies but also in the increase in physical supply exceeding the absorption capacity of the global market.