Editor’s Note
This analysis examines how surging precious metal prices are bolstering the outlook for major Japanese trading houses, particularly those favored by prominent investors. The performance of these commodity-linked equities remains a key indicator of broader market and resource trends.
Japanese major trading house stocks held by renowned investor Warren Buffett could continue to be winners in 2026, buoyed by surging prices of precious metals like gold and silver which are expected to boost their performance.
In the international commodity markets, the spot price of gold temporarily reached a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January, while silver also hit a historic peak of $121 per ounce. In the Japanese stock market, investment funds have flowed into major trading house stocks, including Mitsubishi Corporation which handles energy businesses with interests in global mines. The wholesale stock index, which includes trading houses, has risen 20% year-to-date, a rate double that of the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX).
predicts Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote. While short-term market adjustments are possible, she states,
Globally, fragmentation and geopolitical risks are increasing, with advanced nations in particular facing the need to expand spending, such as on strengthening defense capabilities. Amid concerns over fiscal deterioration, global investors have been actively engaging in “debasement trades” to hedge against currency devaluation, part of which has involved buying precious metals.
This trend is also influenced by wavering confidence in the US dollar, particularly as former US President Donald Trump has shown a series of assertive stances, including imposing additional tariffs on various countries, pressuring the Federal Reserve, and threatening military action against Venezuela.
David Wilson of BNP Paribas believes gold is highly likely to reach new record highs again during 2026. On the other hand, he indicated that silver may have already peaked.
Japan’s five major trading houses—Mitsubishi Corporation, ITOCHU Corporation, Mitsui & Co., Sumitomo Corporation, and Marubeni Corporation—hold stakes in overseas mines. According to a 2022 announcement, Marubeni holds approximately a 20% stake in Canada’s Valhalla Metals, which is engaged in exploration in Alaska, USA. Marubeni’s stock has risen 32% year-to-date. Mitsubishi Corporation, whose mineral resources business accounts for 17% of its revenue, has seen its stock rise 36% since the start of the year, the highest performance among the five companies.
