Editor’s Note
This article highlights the standout performance of precious metals during the recent holiday period, with silver and gold futures leading gains amid broader commodity market divergence.
During the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Horse, the global commodity market showed divergent trends, with precious metals leading the gains and the energy sector showing strength overall. Notably, COMEX silver futures, gold futures, Brent crude oil futures, and WTI crude oil futures recorded significant increases, becoming the focus of market attention, while other categories such as industrial metals showed mixed performance.
Industry insiders stated that events such as the geopolitical game between the US and Iran and the ruling on US tariff policies have impacted the price trends of precious metals and crude oil. Fundamental factors like tight silver inventories also provided support for their rise. Looking ahead, influenced by supply-side uncertainties, seasonal demand fluctuations, and macroeconomic environment disturbances, commodity price volatility is likely to intensify. Precious metals and crude oil will remain the core varieties driving market fluctuations, and related risks require close attention.
According to statistics from Zhengxin Futures, during the Spring Festival holiday (from 15:00 Beijing Time on February 13 to 15:00 on February 23, the same below), the precious metals sector performed brilliantly. Among them, COMEX silver futures accumulated gains of over 11%, ranking first among major global commodities; COMEX gold futures accumulated gains of over 3%, continuing the previous upward trend.
Zhang Chen, a precious metals analyst at Yide Futures, stated that during the Spring Festival holiday, the news that “the US Supreme Court ruled the Trump administration’s large-scale tariff policy illegal” became the most significant event affecting precious metals price trends. On one hand, if some tariffs are canceled, the probability of easing US inflation issues will increase. Falling inflation expectations coupled with rising market risk appetite will push nominal interest rates higher, thereby driving up real interest rates, creating short-term pressure on precious metals prices. On the other hand, this ruling did not shake the foundation of the current US administration’s tariff policy. Furthermore, the ruling is not final, and subsequent policy changes and uncertainty in the ruling outcome remain, which will provide medium-term support for precious metals prices.
Regarding silver, Zhang Chen stated that from a fundamental perspective, global visible silver inventories remain tight, and the COMEX March delivery month is approaching after the holiday. Currently, the proportion of registered warehouse receipts for COMEX silver futures continues to decline. Combined with visible inventory situations in London and Shanghai, there is a high probability that the silver market will see a price increase trend similar to previous major delivery months, which is expected to lead other precious metals to complete a secondary surge.
The international crude oil market also experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, with both Brent crude oil futures and US WTI crude oil futures rising significantly.
According to statistics from Zhengxin Futures, during the Spring Festival holiday, Brent crude oil futures accumulated gains of over 5%; US WTI crude oil futures accumulated gains of over 4%.
Besides precious metals and crude oil, other commodities showed divergent performance. For example, in industrial metals, the aforementioned statistical data shows that during the Spring Festival holiday, LME three-month aluminum, nickel, and copper futures rose slightly, while LME three-month tin futures fell slightly.
Looking ahead, regarding crude oil, Nanhua Futures stated that from a medium- to long-term perspective, there are still several core issues in the crude oil market fundamentals worth focusing on: On the supply side, on one hand, although “OPEC+” continues to maintain the policy of suspending production increases in March, there is still significant uncertainty about whether production increases will resume in April; on the other hand, production growth from non-OPEC oil-producing countries (such as the US, Guyana, Argentina, etc.) will also have a key impact on market balance. On the demand side, according to seasonal patterns, from March to April, global refineries will enter the traditional maintenance season, and demand may experience phased contraction. It is necessary to closely track the scale and progress of maintenance. Currently, the scale of global refinery maintenance remains low. On the inventory side, it is necessary to continuously track changes in key inventory data to judge the pace of market supply-demand rebalancing. Therefore, in the short term, the crude oil market will still show increased volatility under the intertwined influence of Middle East geopolitical risks and macroeconomic environment disturbances.
Regarding precious metals, Zhengxin Futures stated that the current precious metals market faces high uncertainty, and operations should be cautious, paying attention to avoiding volatility risks brought by sharp price rises and falls. From a medium- to long-term perspective, against the backdrop of global geopolitical frictions, continued central bank gold purchases, and increased ETF investment enthusiasm, the bullish logic for gold is more solid than that for silver. It is recommended that gold investors adopt a strategy of reducing positions in batches at highs and adding positions in batches during sharp declines; silver is more volatile due to event-driven and fund influences, and strategies such as going long during sharp declines or following the trend after effective breakthroughs can be chosen.
