Editor’s Note
The data is now clear. As this analysis highlights, COMEX registered silver inventories have plummeted by roughly 75% since 2020, moving a long-anticipated market adjustment from theory into tangible reality.
Silver’s adjustment is no longer theoretical; it is already showing up in exchange data. The Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX) registered inventories, the market’s most important gauge of readily deliverable metal, have plunged from roughly 346 million ounces in 2020 to recently around 88 million ounces (hitting all-time lows in February 2026), a drawdown of roughly 75% over five years.
That collapse is not just statistical noise. According to COMEX warehouse classifications, the registered category (the metal actually available for delivery against futures contracts) has steadily tightened even as paper trading volumes remain robust.
Felix and Friends at Goat Academy flag the same stress point bluntly in their YouTube video. In their recent market analysis, they note:
The phrasing is dramatic, but the directional trend is real. In raw terms, more than 260 million ounces have effectively disappeared from the deliverable pool since the pandemic era peak.
The deeper issue is flow, not just stock. The silver market has now logged multiple consecutive annual deficits. Industry estimates show the market has been in deficit since 2021, with cumulative shortfalls approaching the scale of a full year of mine supply.
Felix and Friends frame it this way:
That figure aligns broadly with independent industry modelling, even if precise totals vary by methodology. The key point is persistence: deficits have become structural.
Further compounding these pressures is heavy reliance on Mexico, the world’s largest silver producer. With output of approximately 202.5 million ounces (6,300 metric tons) in 2025, roughly one-quarter of global mine production (Silver Institute / CEIC data), the stability of supply now faces heightened risks.
According to a CNN report, the recent killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader “El Mencho” (Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes) by Mexican security forces on Sunday, February 22, has triggered widespread retaliatory violence across multiple states, including regions with significant silver mining operations, thereby adding potential jurisdictional risk to an already tight market. These supply-side vulnerabilities make the downstream inventory situation even more precarious.
The stress showed up vividly in late-2025 delivery data. COMEX reported roughly 47–48 million ounces standing for delivery in the opening days of the December contract cycle, an unusually large front-loaded demand burst relative to historical norms. By contrast, December deliveries had historically been only ~10–20M oz.
Highlighting the scale, Felix and Friends noted:
Even allowing for rounding and category nuances, the episode underscored a key shift: more participants are choosing metal over paper settlement.
At the same time, significant volumes have migrated into the “eligible” category (privately held metal inside COMEX vaults but not available for delivery), effectively tightening the float further.
What is driving the squeeze is not investor panic. The root causes are clear. For one, industrial gravity. Rapid growth in industrial and technology demand has swamped the thin market.
Silver’s unique electrical properties make it indispensable for solar panels, electric vehicles, 5G, and AI data centers. The U.S. government now even lists silver as a critical mineral for strategic industries.
Annual industrial demand for silver now pushes past 650–700 million ounces, the dominant slice of total consumption that, together with other uses, consistently outruns the mined supply of roughly 820 million ounces. Put simply, shortages in factories translate swiftly into surging delivery demand.
800M oz – five-year silver supply deficit (2021–25).
82M oz – current COMEX registered silver (all-time low).
≈650–700M oz – annual industrial silver demand (solar, electronics, EVs).