Editor’s Note
This article highlights the recent surge in precious metals, with silver leading gains and gold hitting new highs. The trend underscores heightened market risk aversion and significant capital inflows into safe-haven assets.
On February 25th, gold and silver prices surged simultaneously, with silver’s gains being particularly prominent, continuing to lead the precious metals sector. Spot gold once climbed to $5,200 per ounce during the day, hitting a new high for the period, highlighting the combined effect of rising market risk aversion and capital inflows.
As of the reporter’s deadline, the international spot market performed impressively. Spot gold (London) rose 1.08% intraday to $5,187.37 per ounce, with a session high of $5,210.56 per ounce. Spot silver (London) performed even more strongly, surging 4.24% intraday to $90.777 per ounce, with a session high of $91.236 per ounce. Its gains consistently outpaced gold’s, extending the strong rebound trend seen over recent trading sessions.
The futures market also rallied. As of the deadline, COMEX gold futures rose 0.47% intraday, trading around $5,200 per ounce, with a session high of $5,230 per ounce. COMEX silver futures surged 3.31% to $90.405 per ounce, with a session high of $91.18 per ounce.
Regarding the reasons behind the current round of strength in precious metals prices, Xia Yingying, head of the Precious Metals and New Energy Research Group at Nanhua Futures, analyzed for the reporter that the essence is a catch-up rally following the significant gains in overseas markets during the Spring Festival holiday, combined with the high elasticity characteristic of silver due to its low deliverable inventory, making silver’s gains more pronounced. According to statistics, during the Spring Festival holiday of the Year of the Horse, spot silver (London) accumulated gains of over 13%, and spot gold (London) accumulated gains of over 3%, laying the foundation for the post-holiday catch-up in the domestic market.
Looking ahead, Xia Yingying believes that gold and silver prices in 2026 may follow a pattern of “first fluctuating, then rising, followed by a correction,” but the overall price center of gravity is still expected to rise further. From a medium to long-term perspective, the drawbacks of the US dollar credit system are becoming apparent, the global de-dollarization process is accelerating, central banks worldwide continue to purchase gold, and the hard currency value of gold and silver continues to be highlighted; the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. From a short to medium-term perspective, monetary policy is likely to remain on hold before the Fed leadership change in May, temporarily weakening the marginal benefits of easing. After Wash takes office, the probability of Fed rate cuts in June and beyond increases, and expectation-driven trading may reopen the upside for precious metals. Coupled with political and trade uncertainty in a US election year, safe-haven demand will continue to provide support. As rate cut expectations are gradually realized and the trading of easing prospects weakens, combined with Trump’s policy focus turning inward during the mid-term election window, precious metals may face technical correction pressure from profit-taking and cooling sentiment after a phase of sharp gains, but this does not change the overall pattern of a rising price center of gravity for the year.
Shenyin & Wanguo Futures’ research report also pointed out that in the short term, the tariff ruling and geopolitical conflicts are forming a resonant driver for precious metals. In the medium to long term, factors such as de-dollarization and geopolitical risks will support gold’s return to an upward trajectory. Influenced by the resonance of its industrial and financial attributes, silver is expected to maintain a strong, albeit volatile, trend in the short term.
Recently, UBS reiterated its positive outlook on gold, expecting the international spot gold target price to reach $6,200 per ounce in the coming months. The institution noted that geopolitical risks and the decline in real interest rates brought about by the Fed’s easing cycle will continue to support gold prices. Global gold demand in 2025 had already exceeded 5,000 tons, and with growing investment demand and continued central bank purchases, gold prices are poised to rise further.
