Editor’s Note
**Editor’s Note:** The HKTDC’s Q1 2026 Export Confidence Index reveals a cautious outlook among Hong Kong exporters, with both current and expectations indices dipping below the 50-mark amid global trade uncertainties. Notably, the jewelry sector stands out as a strong performer, offering a bright spot in an otherwise subdued landscape.
(Hong Kong, March 31, 2026) – The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) today released its Export Confidence Index for the first quarter of 2026. The current status index stood at 46.5, while the expectations index was 46.9, declining by 4.9 points and 5 points quarter-on-quarter respectively. This reflects a cautious stance among Hong Kong exporters in the first quarter amid ongoing global trade uncertainties.
The survey was conducted between January and February 2026, and subsequent developments such as the US-Israel-Iran conflict and Middle East situation were not incorporated into the results.
Despite the overall decline in confidence, certain key sectors outperformed the general index. The jewelry sector benefited from robust sales and a surge in new orders, with the current status index rising 5.9 points to 57.1 and the expectations index increasing 1.1 points to 56.0. The apparel sector also saw significant improvement, with the current status index climbing 6.1 points to 52.1 and the expectations index surging 9.2 points to 53.4, both returning to expansion territory.
In contrast, confidence among electronics exporters weakened, with the current status index at 44.9 and the expectations index at 45.6, reflecting the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday on the sector’s exports. HKTDC Director of Research Pang Ming noted that geopolitical instability has slightly dampened the outlook for several of Hong Kong’s key export markets, including ASEAN and Mainland China. However, from a long-term perspective, fundamental demand for electronics and other consumer goods remains resilient.
The trade value sub-index remained near neutral levels, with the current status index at 50.9 and the expectations index at 49.1, suggesting exporters anticipate stable unit prices in the coming months. Additionally, both the current and expected inventory sub-indices rose above 60, indicating that increased shipments at the start of the year have led to lower inventory levels, corroborating the strong export performance of Hong Kong in recent months.
On the cost front, although the cost sub-index remains in contraction territory, it showed significant improvement, with the current status index rising 15.2 points to 38.1 and the expectations index increasing 8.5 points to 41.3. The HKTDC stated that while recent Middle East tensions have pushed up oil and energy prices, cost pressures are expected to continue easing.
Amid external uncertainties, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to expand their business. A separate survey conducted by the HKTDC’s research team found that 46% of respondents have already ventured into cross-border e-commerce, while another 20% plan to enter this field within the next year. HKTDC Head of Thematic Research and Business Advisory Li Yeqin stated that in an uncertain external environment, more enterprises are utilizing e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability.
Furthermore, the survey showed that Mainland China (24%) is the primary e-commerce sales destination for exporters, followed by the EU27 and the UK (17%), and Canada and the US (15%). ASEAN (14%) is seen as an emerging market with significant growth potential.
Editor: You Chen
Keywords: Hong Kong, Confidence Index, Exporters, Jewelry Industry, Cross-border E-commerce